Housing starts in the U.S. rose 2.8% in March and reached an annual rate of 946,000 units, the highest in three months, the Commerce Department reported.
The government also revised its figures for February month and indicated that the rate of construction of 920,000 units in the year was reached, that is 13,000 more than the preliminary estimate.
Most analysts had estimated in March an annual rate of 990,000 units building.
Despite the increase, last month the start of construction of houses was 5.9% lower than in March 2013, which represents the largest annual decline since April 2011.
Last March the pace of construction of houses I rose 6%, to an annualized rate of 635,000 units. Construction of multifamily units, such as apartment buildings and condominiums, fell 3.1% and remained at an annual rate of 311,000 units.
Building permits, which are an indicator of future activity, fell 2.4% in March to 990,000 in the year. Most analysts had calculated that the annualized rate of 1.01 million permits reach.
The U.S. industrial production in March was 0.7% higher than the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The Fed also revised its figures for February and noted that industrial production rose 1.2% this month.
The advances mean that the country's industrial output grew in the first quarter to an annual rate of 4.4%.
The manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly three quarters of industrial production grew by 0.5% in March after a 1.4% increase in February.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
Improve sales and prices of homes in Florida
The home sales in Miami-Dade continue to rise as their prices, although these still remain at the level of before the housing bubble, according to the Association of Realtors in Miami.
"The majority of homes sold in the county in the first quarter were below $ 200,000, and prices remain what they were in 2003, creating opportunities for all types of buyers," said the resident president of this group, Francisco Angulo.
"Despite record demand for property in Miami, affordability remains a reality," he added.
According to the report of the first three months of the year, the increase in demand for both foreign and domestic buyers boosted the real estate market in the county.
"After three years of record sales in Miami, it is remarkable that the local market is experiencing strong results exceed demand last year," said Liza Mendez, president of the Board of the cluster.
"Despite strong demand for properties in Miami, increased inventory is creating a more balanced market between buyers and sellers," said Mendez.
The average price for home sales in Miami-Dade was $ 230,000 during the first quarter of this year, an increase of 11.8% compared to last year, while the average increased 15.7 percent to $ 187.500 .
According to the association, which brings together about 30,000 real estate agents, and are nine consecutive increases in single-family homes and condominiums in Miami-Dade County.
During the first quarter, 6,752 homes and condos, up 3.8 percent compared with the same period in 2013 were sold.
The association said sales of single-family homes rose 7.4 percent, with sales of 2,893 homes, while condo sales rose 1.3 percent to 3,859 compared with the same period of 2013.
Florida was the epicenter of the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007-2008, which among others, was characterized by the collapse of the subprime or high risk.
"The majority of homes sold in the county in the first quarter were below $ 200,000, and prices remain what they were in 2003, creating opportunities for all types of buyers," said the resident president of this group, Francisco Angulo.
"Despite record demand for property in Miami, affordability remains a reality," he added.
According to the report of the first three months of the year, the increase in demand for both foreign and domestic buyers boosted the real estate market in the county.
"After three years of record sales in Miami, it is remarkable that the local market is experiencing strong results exceed demand last year," said Liza Mendez, president of the Board of the cluster.
"Despite strong demand for properties in Miami, increased inventory is creating a more balanced market between buyers and sellers," said Mendez.
The average price for home sales in Miami-Dade was $ 230,000 during the first quarter of this year, an increase of 11.8% compared to last year, while the average increased 15.7 percent to $ 187.500 .
According to the association, which brings together about 30,000 real estate agents, and are nine consecutive increases in single-family homes and condominiums in Miami-Dade County.
During the first quarter, 6,752 homes and condos, up 3.8 percent compared with the same period in 2013 were sold.
The association said sales of single-family homes rose 7.4 percent, with sales of 2,893 homes, while condo sales rose 1.3 percent to 3,859 compared with the same period of 2013.
Florida was the epicenter of the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007-2008, which among others, was characterized by the collapse of the subprime or high risk.
Friday, June 13, 2014
Real estate market in Miami-Dade advances its recovery
The tax basis of properties of the Miami-Dade County increased 6.5 percent compared to last year, the biggest gain since the historic collapse of the housing market that greatly damaged the economy of the region and forced the local governments to tighten their belts to survive.
"The center and oceanfront homes go ahead. These areas are stronger than the western suburbs and the south end of the county, "said Lazaro Solis, property appraiser of Miami-Dade. "Apparently we have a very strong market for real estate. We have taken a drastic turn up in poor areas, although there are still things to improve. "
For some municipalities, the largest growth than expected means at least a relief when balancing the budgets for fiscal years beginning on or after 1st. October. But for others, especially Miami-Dade County, which has a budget gap of about $ 200 million coming until next fiscal year, a larger taxable income will not solve the problems.
Among the municipalities that enjoy robust earnings are Miami Beach (9.4%), Surfside (17.6%) and Sunny Isles Beach (11%). Which had weaker results were Florida City (down 1.3%), Opa-locka (down 1.5%) and Medley (down 2.6%).
"For the most affluent neighborhoods are doing better than those who are not wealthy," Solis said. Liberty City and north-central area of the county, for example, are moving more work to recover from the sharp drop in values that took place between 2008 and 2011.
The growth in property values in Miami-Dade, a county that comprises more than one million properties, reached $ 209,937,000,000 until the 1st. January, a little less than $ 210,000 million.
In addition to the real estate sector, the growth reflects changes in tangible personal property. FPL's investments in Turkey Point nuclear facility, for example, they added about $ 500 million in taxable income, Solis said.
Preliminary values of property taxes are used by cities and counties to tax when making their budgets for 2014-15 and send rates property tax, the tax paid per $ 1,000 of taxable value.
"We look forward to the commissioners several options for them to enfrentrar some needs of the community," said Jimmy Morales, manager of Miami Beach. "It gives us some flexibility as we approach the new year."
Miami Beach could devote part of the increase to the ambitious projects undertaken to mitigate floods and problems regarding sea level rise, Morales said. In February, the city decided to use estimates of high tides at the time of building projects in the city to install new pumping out water from the streets, all at a cost of approximately $ 400 million. Moreover, growth could allow Miami Beach cutting taxes, building on increases during the worst of the economic crisis.
Elected officials, Morales said, can decide whether to "use the money to make some improvements or return it to the taxpayers.''
The preliminary report of the property appraiser, which will be adjusted and finished 1st. July also emphasizes the irregular has been the recovery of real estate industry in South Florida.
"The neighborhoods in the coastal area ... continue to show a strong real estate market with high growth. Some parts of the county that were hit hardest by the recession, Hialeah, Homestead and El Portal, have experienced the most substantial growth in 2014. However, Opa-locka, Florida City and Medley still not fully recovered and property values continue to fall, "Solis said in the statement.
For this year, the value of the properties of Hialeah recovered by 4.7%, which means a big change compared to 2013, when property values fell 3.5%.
For Miami-Dade, Friday's report was a pleasant surprise, but not something that will radically change the landscape. Economic experts forecast an increase of 4 percent rather than the 6.5 percent gain. The Budget Office of Miami-Dade said he has not yet determined how the new estimates could impact the earnings forecasts, although a quick glance at the numbers suggest that earnings could be around $ 20 million.
In a statement, Mayor Carlos Gimenez warned that healthy earnings outlook will not stop him demanding further concessions to the unions, including the proposed 10 percent reductions and benefits. The "net improvement is still not enough to avoid significant reductions in the operating budget of the county," Gimenez said. "Moreover, growth is not so great that it can overcome the increasingly high personal costs of collective agreements."
Alberto Carvalho, superintendent of Miami-Dade schools, said the increase in property values makes it highly unlikely that the school district's tax rate has to be increased, but warned that the growth of home values not fallen from heaven means money for the school system. By complicated formula of local / state funding for schools every year is the state that determines how much local taxpayers expected to contribute. In fact it is the state Floridian, who at first instance set tax rates to district property which then appear in the account property taxes.
Despite significant gains in property values in some areas, homeowners exemptions from property taxes will see their value increases up to 1.5% this year, based on the amendment to the Florida Save Our Homes (Saving our homes). The amendment increases the limit on the value of the exemption to the property to 3 percent or the consumer price index, either to be lower. For homes that do not have property exemption, increases in values are limited to 10 percent a year under the laws of Florida.
This makes it the third straight year in which the property values rise after four consecutive years of declines during the devastating housing crisis that plunged into a swamp to the economy of the region and forced governments to make controversial and painful cuts budget.
"The center and oceanfront homes go ahead. These areas are stronger than the western suburbs and the south end of the county, "said Lazaro Solis, property appraiser of Miami-Dade. "Apparently we have a very strong market for real estate. We have taken a drastic turn up in poor areas, although there are still things to improve. "
For some municipalities, the largest growth than expected means at least a relief when balancing the budgets for fiscal years beginning on or after 1st. October. But for others, especially Miami-Dade County, which has a budget gap of about $ 200 million coming until next fiscal year, a larger taxable income will not solve the problems.
Among the municipalities that enjoy robust earnings are Miami Beach (9.4%), Surfside (17.6%) and Sunny Isles Beach (11%). Which had weaker results were Florida City (down 1.3%), Opa-locka (down 1.5%) and Medley (down 2.6%).
"For the most affluent neighborhoods are doing better than those who are not wealthy," Solis said. Liberty City and north-central area of the county, for example, are moving more work to recover from the sharp drop in values that took place between 2008 and 2011.
The growth in property values in Miami-Dade, a county that comprises more than one million properties, reached $ 209,937,000,000 until the 1st. January, a little less than $ 210,000 million.
In addition to the real estate sector, the growth reflects changes in tangible personal property. FPL's investments in Turkey Point nuclear facility, for example, they added about $ 500 million in taxable income, Solis said.
Preliminary values of property taxes are used by cities and counties to tax when making their budgets for 2014-15 and send rates property tax, the tax paid per $ 1,000 of taxable value.
"We look forward to the commissioners several options for them to enfrentrar some needs of the community," said Jimmy Morales, manager of Miami Beach. "It gives us some flexibility as we approach the new year."
Miami Beach could devote part of the increase to the ambitious projects undertaken to mitigate floods and problems regarding sea level rise, Morales said. In February, the city decided to use estimates of high tides at the time of building projects in the city to install new pumping out water from the streets, all at a cost of approximately $ 400 million. Moreover, growth could allow Miami Beach cutting taxes, building on increases during the worst of the economic crisis.
Elected officials, Morales said, can decide whether to "use the money to make some improvements or return it to the taxpayers.''
The preliminary report of the property appraiser, which will be adjusted and finished 1st. July also emphasizes the irregular has been the recovery of real estate industry in South Florida.
"The neighborhoods in the coastal area ... continue to show a strong real estate market with high growth. Some parts of the county that were hit hardest by the recession, Hialeah, Homestead and El Portal, have experienced the most substantial growth in 2014. However, Opa-locka, Florida City and Medley still not fully recovered and property values continue to fall, "Solis said in the statement.
For this year, the value of the properties of Hialeah recovered by 4.7%, which means a big change compared to 2013, when property values fell 3.5%.
For Miami-Dade, Friday's report was a pleasant surprise, but not something that will radically change the landscape. Economic experts forecast an increase of 4 percent rather than the 6.5 percent gain. The Budget Office of Miami-Dade said he has not yet determined how the new estimates could impact the earnings forecasts, although a quick glance at the numbers suggest that earnings could be around $ 20 million.
In a statement, Mayor Carlos Gimenez warned that healthy earnings outlook will not stop him demanding further concessions to the unions, including the proposed 10 percent reductions and benefits. The "net improvement is still not enough to avoid significant reductions in the operating budget of the county," Gimenez said. "Moreover, growth is not so great that it can overcome the increasingly high personal costs of collective agreements."
Alberto Carvalho, superintendent of Miami-Dade schools, said the increase in property values makes it highly unlikely that the school district's tax rate has to be increased, but warned that the growth of home values not fallen from heaven means money for the school system. By complicated formula of local / state funding for schools every year is the state that determines how much local taxpayers expected to contribute. In fact it is the state Floridian, who at first instance set tax rates to district property which then appear in the account property taxes.
Despite significant gains in property values in some areas, homeowners exemptions from property taxes will see their value increases up to 1.5% this year, based on the amendment to the Florida Save Our Homes (Saving our homes). The amendment increases the limit on the value of the exemption to the property to 3 percent or the consumer price index, either to be lower. For homes that do not have property exemption, increases in values are limited to 10 percent a year under the laws of Florida.
This makes it the third straight year in which the property values rise after four consecutive years of declines during the devastating housing crisis that plunged into a swamp to the economy of the region and forced governments to make controversial and painful cuts budget.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
Dreams of immigrants will continue to drive the housing recovery in the U.S.
Efforts to reform the U.S. immigration laws could have at least one unintended benefit for the economy : the nascent housing recovery is likely to receive more momentum .
The amount of homeowners foreign born 2.8 million increase in the decade ending in 2020 , compared with an increase of 2.4 million in the previous ten years, according to a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA , for short ) that did not assess the potential impact of a new law.
Research by a group of Hispanic Real Estate Agents concluded that the increase could be even higher if undocumented workers are placed in the path to citizenship .
Immigrants who are more positively than native Americans owning property, are increasingly likely to buy a house to live in the more prosperous the U.S. and are , research shows. They represent more than 50 % of the increase in the purchase of houses in six states in this decade , including California and New York, according to the report .
" We may have underestimated this powerful force already residing here and upward mobility is so pushed up from below the housing market ," said Dowell Myers , author of the MBA study and professor of public policy at the University of Southern California at Los Angeles who studies the demographics of housing. "It has accumulated a growing momentum ."
That upward mobility is evident in the MBA data showing that the percentage of those who arrived in the 1980s and became homeowners increased by about 35 percentage points in the next three decades despite the longest recession since the great Depression had a negative impact. By 2020 , 61% of Hispanic immigrants who arrived here nearly forty years before , in addition to more than 70 percent of Hispanic aliens, be homeowners.
Europe troubles
While the housing market recovery fuels expansion in the U.S., European economies are struggling. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at a record high of 12% in February, data showed the statistical office of the European Union in Luxembourg yesterday.
56% of Hispanic Americans, according to census data in the U.S. make up more than half of the inhabitants were born abroad , said an "important" reason to buy a house is that it is a "symbol of success or achievement," showed data from a 2011 survey conducted Fannie Mae to Washington .
The percentage of all Americans who gave the same response was 32 %.
67% of Hispanics said that an important reason for buying a home is a good investment for retirement , compared to 54% of the total population , the survey showed .
The amount of homeowners foreign born 2.8 million increase in the decade ending in 2020 , compared with an increase of 2.4 million in the previous ten years, according to a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA , for short ) that did not assess the potential impact of a new law.
Research by a group of Hispanic Real Estate Agents concluded that the increase could be even higher if undocumented workers are placed in the path to citizenship .
Immigrants who are more positively than native Americans owning property, are increasingly likely to buy a house to live in the more prosperous the U.S. and are , research shows. They represent more than 50 % of the increase in the purchase of houses in six states in this decade , including California and New York, according to the report .
" We may have underestimated this powerful force already residing here and upward mobility is so pushed up from below the housing market ," said Dowell Myers , author of the MBA study and professor of public policy at the University of Southern California at Los Angeles who studies the demographics of housing. "It has accumulated a growing momentum ."
That upward mobility is evident in the MBA data showing that the percentage of those who arrived in the 1980s and became homeowners increased by about 35 percentage points in the next three decades despite the longest recession since the great Depression had a negative impact. By 2020 , 61% of Hispanic immigrants who arrived here nearly forty years before , in addition to more than 70 percent of Hispanic aliens, be homeowners.
Europe troubles
While the housing market recovery fuels expansion in the U.S., European economies are struggling. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at a record high of 12% in February, data showed the statistical office of the European Union in Luxembourg yesterday.
56% of Hispanic Americans, according to census data in the U.S. make up more than half of the inhabitants were born abroad , said an "important" reason to buy a house is that it is a "symbol of success or achievement," showed data from a 2011 survey conducted Fannie Mae to Washington .
The percentage of all Americans who gave the same response was 32 %.
67% of Hispanics said that an important reason for buying a home is a good investment for retirement , compared to 54% of the total population , the survey showed .
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
Tourism and construction: booming sectors in Miami
Florida is one of the states in the U.S. housing market which has experienced the greatest growth in the last year . After the deep crisis , this recovery has come from the hand of a major tourism, which opens the door of opportunities for Spanish companies in Miami and Latin America, said William D. Talbert , president of Miami Department of Tourism .
"The business in Miami 's tourism is booming ." This indicates that the tourism business is booming in Miami president and CEO of the Tourism Department of Miami -Dade , William D. Talbert . A fact that came at once to increase the Latino influence in the United States and, as a spearhead represents Miami.
"Tourism has been growing for many years and the future is really good. 've Managed tourism record number of visitors, tourists spending , on the arrival of flights at an airport ... and also we lead U.S. the revenue per hotel room . "
Current good situation of tourism in Miami , says Talbert, is partly due to the international promotion provided by " offices and conventions abroad for tourism, more creative and active marketing and the 'mark Miami ' and responsible " .
A good example is the visit of the delegation from Miami -Dade , led by Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez, and seconded by Talbert own . However, this boom enjoyed by Miami also reflected in figures:
" The tourists spent 21,000 million euros in Miami in the last year , and the demand to build new hotels and new tourism attractions continues and continues to grow. And that is because we have great restaurants and trendy shops, 25 miles from beaches ( about 40 miles), and we are the only place in the U.S. with two national parks, " maximum impact responsible tourism Miami.
This growth of tourism in Miami is seeing accompanied by construction , always related sectors . Declares Alan Ojeda , president and CEO of Rilea Group , a leading construction company in this region of Florida, who talks about the current real estate boom in the metropolis after the recent crisis :
"The problem was not as large as previously thought, and the decline was very sharp , not as in Spain , where it's like a slow death. And the recovery has also been hit , because Miami is really a continent of 400 million people do not know that there was a recession in the world that is South America. "
Ojeda is Spanish although already adopted by Florida, after more than thirty years since I crossed the pond , so it is aware of the advantages of Miami , such as location , and especially the construction sector , on which yields good prospects :
" Construction will continue to grow inexorably and is not too late to go because Miami is starting its cycle, but not a market ' pitch ' , as was Spain . 's A market you need to understand and you should go with a local partner . "
Because, despite these positive outlook is key to know the market . Therefore, many are more cautious , as Brian McLean, consultant senio International Consulting Team :
" For a Spanish company is possible that entry into the U.S. through Miami may seem an easy way to the language , but if you want to sell in the U.S. have to think . 's Not the same to sell a Cuban culture, such as Miami , which eg Kansas . "
McLean himself , however , does point out that Miami is a big market , as is evident, and it is a great choice if consumer goods are produced or aspire to enter the Latin American market .
An idea that recalls the words of the president of the Chamber of Commerce, Jaime Malet, in his address to the arrival of the trade mission to Spain :
" Spain , Latin America and the U.S. form a virtuous triangle is consolidated year after year and in these difficult economic times, may provide part of the push it needs the Spanish economy to finally overcome this crisis."
"The business in Miami 's tourism is booming ." This indicates that the tourism business is booming in Miami president and CEO of the Tourism Department of Miami -Dade , William D. Talbert . A fact that came at once to increase the Latino influence in the United States and, as a spearhead represents Miami.
"Tourism has been growing for many years and the future is really good. 've Managed tourism record number of visitors, tourists spending , on the arrival of flights at an airport ... and also we lead U.S. the revenue per hotel room . "
Current good situation of tourism in Miami , says Talbert, is partly due to the international promotion provided by " offices and conventions abroad for tourism, more creative and active marketing and the 'mark Miami ' and responsible " .
A good example is the visit of the delegation from Miami -Dade , led by Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez, and seconded by Talbert own . However, this boom enjoyed by Miami also reflected in figures:
" The tourists spent 21,000 million euros in Miami in the last year , and the demand to build new hotels and new tourism attractions continues and continues to grow. And that is because we have great restaurants and trendy shops, 25 miles from beaches ( about 40 miles), and we are the only place in the U.S. with two national parks, " maximum impact responsible tourism Miami.
This growth of tourism in Miami is seeing accompanied by construction , always related sectors . Declares Alan Ojeda , president and CEO of Rilea Group , a leading construction company in this region of Florida, who talks about the current real estate boom in the metropolis after the recent crisis :
"The problem was not as large as previously thought, and the decline was very sharp , not as in Spain , where it's like a slow death. And the recovery has also been hit , because Miami is really a continent of 400 million people do not know that there was a recession in the world that is South America. "
Ojeda is Spanish although already adopted by Florida, after more than thirty years since I crossed the pond , so it is aware of the advantages of Miami , such as location , and especially the construction sector , on which yields good prospects :
" Construction will continue to grow inexorably and is not too late to go because Miami is starting its cycle, but not a market ' pitch ' , as was Spain . 's A market you need to understand and you should go with a local partner . "
Because, despite these positive outlook is key to know the market . Therefore, many are more cautious , as Brian McLean, consultant senio International Consulting Team :
" For a Spanish company is possible that entry into the U.S. through Miami may seem an easy way to the language , but if you want to sell in the U.S. have to think . 's Not the same to sell a Cuban culture, such as Miami , which eg Kansas . "
McLean himself , however , does point out that Miami is a big market , as is evident, and it is a great choice if consumer goods are produced or aspire to enter the Latin American market .
An idea that recalls the words of the president of the Chamber of Commerce, Jaime Malet, in his address to the arrival of the trade mission to Spain :
" Spain , Latin America and the U.S. form a virtuous triangle is consolidated year after year and in these difficult economic times, may provide part of the push it needs the Spanish economy to finally overcome this crisis."
Monday, March 31, 2014
The price of homes in the U.S.. returns to its biggest rise in seven years
The price of single family homes in the United States again recorded in May for the most up -on-year in seven years , according to the consulting firm Standard & Poor's ( S & P) , who said that these data indicate that the housing market " continues to strengthen ."
The Case- Shiller , which prepares the firm to study the evolution of housing prices , index rose 12.2% in May compared with the same month last year in the twenty largest cities. The advance was 11.8% in the ten largest cities.
In both cases these increases are the largest recorded since March 2006, before the bursting of the housing bubble in this country, although experts had calculated a slightly steeper climb .
Moreover, when compared to the levels that were in April, prices of single-family homes in the twenty largest cities have advanced 2.4% and 2.5% in the top ten .
Two of the twenty cities surveyed by S & P , Dallas and Denver, in May reached levels not seen since they began developing this index, also before the peaks reached before the start of the housing crisis.
cities
In annual terms , San Francisco registered the highest advance with 24.5 %, followed by Las Vegas ( 23.3%) , Phoenix ( 20.6%) and Atlanta ( 20.1%).
" The housing prices continue to strengthen ," he said in announcing this information the chairman Indices S & P's David Blitzer, who highlighted the changing trends shown in this report , as the case of the cities of Miami and Tampa , which "It is falling behind compared to western cities ."
In any case, since hitting their peak in June and July of 2006, housing prices in both the twentieth and the ten largest cities in the United States accumulated a fall of 25 % and 24 % , respectively.
The Case- Shiller , which prepares the firm to study the evolution of housing prices , index rose 12.2% in May compared with the same month last year in the twenty largest cities. The advance was 11.8% in the ten largest cities.
In both cases these increases are the largest recorded since March 2006, before the bursting of the housing bubble in this country, although experts had calculated a slightly steeper climb .
Moreover, when compared to the levels that were in April, prices of single-family homes in the twenty largest cities have advanced 2.4% and 2.5% in the top ten .
Two of the twenty cities surveyed by S & P , Dallas and Denver, in May reached levels not seen since they began developing this index, also before the peaks reached before the start of the housing crisis.
cities
In annual terms , San Francisco registered the highest advance with 24.5 %, followed by Las Vegas ( 23.3%) , Phoenix ( 20.6%) and Atlanta ( 20.1%).
" The housing prices continue to strengthen ," he said in announcing this information the chairman Indices S & P's David Blitzer, who highlighted the changing trends shown in this report , as the case of the cities of Miami and Tampa , which "It is falling behind compared to western cities ."
In any case, since hitting their peak in June and July of 2006, housing prices in both the twentieth and the ten largest cities in the United States accumulated a fall of 25 % and 24 % , respectively.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
It's the end of the housing recovery in the United States?
"In the last 12-18 months , virtually all U.S. housing market indicators have improved remarkably prices rise , construction recovers, mortgage delinquencies is down and credit conditions , although still restrictive , have improved " . So Mark Allan optimistic economist AXA Investment Managers , shown in the last report of the Management . "However , the pace of new construction has slowed in the last couple of months and mortgage rates have increased. In this situation , some people wonder if we are at the end of the recovery of the sector , "said the expert.
In AXA IM believe that housing starts will accelerate in the second half of the year. " The approximate indicators are recovering economic growth , access to credit for SMEs - a crucial factor in the construction sector has improved and residential - promoters show higher levels of confidence thanks to, among other things , the rise the interest of buyers , which could translate into sales growth , "says Allan .
For the expert, the best prospects, along with the rapid increase in prices , will support the increase in construction activity in 2013 and 2014. "In May , seven of the twenty cities covered by the Case- Shiller index recorded an annual growth of housing prices more than 15 %." However, Allan warns that these figures may offer a distorted view : "Nationally , average prices are still 25% below the peak of 2006 , and between 30 and 40% in states where the bubble burst " . So for AXA IM economist , " the recent inflation of housing prices respond to supply shortage and not a credit bubble ."
According to the data handled by the manager, to date much of the excess accumulated in the balance sheets of banks has gone into the hands of investors supply, but this could change soon by reducing inventories of properties from foreclosure and said rising prices. " If we expect supply to grow in the second half of the year and is expected to investor demand is weak, it is necessary to increase the demand for it" .
Threats to recovery
According to Allan , the request would be threatened by two factors: a sharp increase in mortgage interest rates and high unemployment , leading to potential buyers to doubt his ability to deal with the mortgage. "Since the sell in May, interest rates have gained about 75 basis points ," says the economist. "However , actual rates range around 2% for a 30-year mortgage at a fixed rate , so you can say that are still low by historical standards ."
" At AXA IM believe that the Federal Reserve will begin to limit its quantitative easing program in September and will continue with the gradual normalization of rates over the next two years. It is clear that this process will affect mortgage rates , but do not expect others to increase over 70 basis points by the end of 2014 , "says Allan . What if the increase was sharper ? " Most likely , in that case, the market reacts by reducing supply , but we do not expect further price declines ."
With respect to the unemployment rate , the data in recent months are encouraging. "The number of vacancies in companies increases progressively , workers return to be willing to change jobs and consumer confidence shows a slight improvement." AXA IM is optimistic : "We expect the unemployment rate to fall further in the next eighteen months so , if credit conditions do not prevent it , we can expect a similar upturn in the housing market ."
In AXA IM believe that housing starts will accelerate in the second half of the year. " The approximate indicators are recovering economic growth , access to credit for SMEs - a crucial factor in the construction sector has improved and residential - promoters show higher levels of confidence thanks to, among other things , the rise the interest of buyers , which could translate into sales growth , "says Allan .
For the expert, the best prospects, along with the rapid increase in prices , will support the increase in construction activity in 2013 and 2014. "In May , seven of the twenty cities covered by the Case- Shiller index recorded an annual growth of housing prices more than 15 %." However, Allan warns that these figures may offer a distorted view : "Nationally , average prices are still 25% below the peak of 2006 , and between 30 and 40% in states where the bubble burst " . So for AXA IM economist , " the recent inflation of housing prices respond to supply shortage and not a credit bubble ."
According to the data handled by the manager, to date much of the excess accumulated in the balance sheets of banks has gone into the hands of investors supply, but this could change soon by reducing inventories of properties from foreclosure and said rising prices. " If we expect supply to grow in the second half of the year and is expected to investor demand is weak, it is necessary to increase the demand for it" .
Threats to recovery
According to Allan , the request would be threatened by two factors: a sharp increase in mortgage interest rates and high unemployment , leading to potential buyers to doubt his ability to deal with the mortgage. "Since the sell in May, interest rates have gained about 75 basis points ," says the economist. "However , actual rates range around 2% for a 30-year mortgage at a fixed rate , so you can say that are still low by historical standards ."
" At AXA IM believe that the Federal Reserve will begin to limit its quantitative easing program in September and will continue with the gradual normalization of rates over the next two years. It is clear that this process will affect mortgage rates , but do not expect others to increase over 70 basis points by the end of 2014 , "says Allan . What if the increase was sharper ? " Most likely , in that case, the market reacts by reducing supply , but we do not expect further price declines ."
With respect to the unemployment rate , the data in recent months are encouraging. "The number of vacancies in companies increases progressively , workers return to be willing to change jobs and consumer confidence shows a slight improvement." AXA IM is optimistic : "We expect the unemployment rate to fall further in the next eighteen months so , if credit conditions do not prevent it , we can expect a similar upturn in the housing market ."
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